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An epidemic of self-overestimation
Translated from Dutch. View the original post
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I found it in several places: disturbing reports of a substantial increase in the number of thinning crown cases. #Dunningkruger - What? In 1999, two Cornell psychologists, David Dunning and Justin Kruger, described that subjects who scored poorly at testing in, among other things, logical reasoning and grammar, were inclined to heavily overestimate their own competences in these areas. People who scored high turned out to underestimate their knowledge. Since then, this is called the 'thinning krugereffect'.
According to Dunning and Kruger, incompetence in a certain area easily leads us to overestimate ourselves in that area and to underestimate others. Due to the lack of knowledge, we simply do not know how little we know.
The global corona outbreak is currently leading to a thinning kruger pandemic. On every digital street corner you meet people who know better than researchers, medics and administrators. Podcaster Mark Eikema said it nicely: The Netherlands now includes not only 17 million national coaches, but also 17 million virologists. Now it may be quite entertaining that hordes of Twitter users overestimate their own knowledge. It becomes more dangerous when leaders suffer from thinning kruger.
The online magazine Salon.com named Donald Trump last week “Our Dunning-Kruger President”. One of the reasons: Trump visited the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta in early March to get information about the coronavirus. Afterwards, he said to the press, “I love this stuff. I really get it. People are surprised I understand. All these doctors said, “How come you know so much about it?” (literal translation of the transcript on the White House website).
When it comes to leadership, there's an extra snag. We tend to see people who behave more confidently — whether they have reason to do so or not — as leaders. Researchers see this as one of the reasons that more men than women work in leadership positions. Men tend to exaggerate their knowledge and skills rather than women. For example, men estimate their own IQ higher on average than women. TThere are some thinning kruger and suddenly it's not surprising that there are men in all kinds of managerial positions who you think: how did he get there?Is there a cure for self-overestimation? More or less. Researchers Dunning and Kruger found in their experiments that, after a thorough training in a specific field, their subjects realized that they knew little about it before. This involved people who had previously promised to participate in the investigation. In practice, a person who suffers from the thinning kruger effect will simply not believe that he needs more knowledge.
And what can I do with this knowledge myself? From now on to listen a little more suspicious when someone claims he knows something. And even better pay attention when the hesitant scientist takes the floor.
According to Dunning and Kruger, incompetence in a certain area easily leads us to overestimate ourselves in that area and to underestimate others. Due to the lack of knowledge, we simply do not know how little we know.
The global corona outbreak is currently leading to a thinning kruger pandemic. On every digital street corner you meet people who know better than researchers, medics and administrators. Podcaster Mark Eikema said it nicely: The Netherlands now includes not only 17 million national coaches, but also 17 million virologists. Now it may be quite entertaining that hordes of Twitter users overestimate their own knowledge. It becomes more dangerous when leaders suffer from thinning kruger.
The online magazine Salon.com named Donald Trump last week “Our Dunning-Kruger President”. One of the reasons: Trump visited the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta in early March to get information about the coronavirus. Afterwards, he said to the press, “I love this stuff. I really get it. People are surprised I understand. All these doctors said, “How come you know so much about it?” (literal translation of the transcript on the White House website).
When it comes to leadership, there's an extra snag. We tend to see people who behave more confidently — whether they have reason to do so or not — as leaders. Researchers see this as one of the reasons that more men than women work in leadership positions. Men tend to exaggerate their knowledge and skills rather than women. For example, men estimate their own IQ higher on average than women. TThere are some thinning kruger and suddenly it's not surprising that there are men in all kinds of managerial positions who you think: how did he get there?Is there a cure for self-overestimation? More or less. Researchers Dunning and Kruger found in their experiments that, after a thorough training in a specific field, their subjects realized that they knew little about it before. This involved people who had previously promised to participate in the investigation. In practice, a person who suffers from the thinning kruger effect will simply not believe that he needs more knowledge.
And what can I do with this knowledge myself? From now on to listen a little more suspicious when someone claims he knows something. And even better pay attention when the hesitant scientist takes the floor.
Jhe who say: I don't really know much about this, probably know what they're talking about.
Source: NRC Ben Tiggelaar writes weekly about personal leadership, work and management.
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