And again the Netherlands is behind the facts!

I'm the only one on Yoors who thinks Rutte's so-called historic address is a bullshitty talk.

Rutte (VVD) takes as few measures as possible, citizens must do it themselves as he emphasises in every press conference. His VVD policy has led to an unprecedented breakdown of our social services, care, culture, permanent jobs, health insurance, nature and the environment in recent years. All this according to the neoliberal thinking of VVD, CDA, D66, Labour Party and CU.

In every press conference Rutte insisted that people (the citizens) do it themselves. That was not said to deaf ears. The hamster weeks had begun. On Friday, Rutte declared that the schools would remain open. That led to great turmoil. The schools themselves decided to close.

Region The Hague
Schools in the region are preparing for a possible closure. A memo held by Omroep West shows that the municipality of Westland had crisis talks about closing the schools. Schooenkoepel The Hague Schools finds out how education can continue from home. Interbranch organisation Childcare wants to provide emergency care.”On Sunday the government decided to close.In Germany, the non-essential shops were closed. The Netherlands does not do that. So people go over it themselves. The staff at IKEA are protesting and begging for closure. In Eindhoven, shops close by themselves. Rutte doesn't have to order it. Until he has to, because there are always shops that do not show such a sense of responsibility.

The same can be seen in the salvation of the small self-employed and self-employed workers. The government is wavering, so people are going to come up with measures themselves. Buying vouchers, not asking for money from tickets. The Postcode lottery calls for an emergency fund.

The most important part of Rutte's speech was his explanation of the group immunity. Boris Johnson came up with that story last week. Public life continues there. Just light each other that works best to become immum. Watch out for the elderly among us (how?).

People's newspaper
Rutte wants to 'controlled infection' and protect the vulnerable. A simple sum shows that this is not possible. In Britain, the same plan suffered a storm of criticism, and Dutch virologists also do the math:

1 The foundation: is it feasible?
Group immunity (herd immunity) is a classic of medical textbooks, where it ended in 1923 after experiments by British bacteriologist William Topley. In his mice, Topley observed that he did not have to inoculate all the animals to prevent a disease. At some point so many animals are immune, that a germ can no longer jump from animal to animal and disappear.

Nice principle, but you have to immunize a lot of individuals for it. This depends on how contagious the pathogen is, through a nice calculation: 1 minus 1 divided by the number of infections per person. For example, in the case of measles virus, where an infected person can infect up to twenty others, 1 - 1/20 = 95 percent of the population must be immune before the spread stops. That's why the RIVM sounded the alarm when the vaccination rate dropped below 95 percent.

And the new coronavirus? In the Netherlands, we are assuming an infectiousness of about 2.5 new infections per infected. And that means that group immunity does not develop until 60 percent of the population has had the virus (1 - 1/2.5). Other epidemiologists reach 80 percent with slightly different assumptions.

And those are quite numbers. 'We are struggling with that a little bit, 'says Professor of Clinical Virology Louis Kroes (LUMC). 'We are now on 1,700 infections. That is 0.1 per mille of the population of our country. Before you come to an active group immunity, it must increase enormously. '

As Rutte says, the elderly and vulnerable people cannot 'fence' off ': the over-50s alone make up about 50 percent of the population. 'If you want the group immunity to emerge, there is no way you can save the vulnerable groups', says Kroes.

2 The wall: isn't it too much an end in itself?
Rutte said it like it was a given. 'The reality is that a large part of the Dutch population will become infected with the virus in the near future. ' RIVM advisor Jaap van Dissel at Nieuwsuur described 'the thought behind this policy'.

In any case, it seems too early to speculate on group immunity. 'We shouldn't have people saying: it's not so crazy to get infected, because that's good for the group munity', says Kroes. 'The goal is not to go for group immunity in a short time, but to let as few people as possible become infected. ' News, backgrounds and columns of the Volkskrant What keeping distance can do against the corona outbreak: see the visualization
EXPERTS ROUND: So the question that will be all about today: does group immunity work? Several media took a round of experts. This shows that reality is a bit more complex than the story of Rutte. For group immunity to be effective, at least 60 percent of the population must be immune. That could take years. It is also difficult to prevent the weak from becoming infected. But the experts support the policy of the Cabinet: any strategy is a gamble, they say, but a lockdown would be meaningless, then comes the peak of contamination if the measures are lifted. Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan are also praised in the Chamber for their approach, but strict measures are still in place there too.

The government is helping entrepreneurs with tens of billions. But even that may come too late. 78.000 desperate companies queued for an emergency plan that has 'no restriction'. The question is whether it will be enough: the request-site crashed in any case almost instantly. Tempo is just as important in this crisis as the money itself. The huge flow of requests for aid must be processed by officials in the ministries of social and economic affairs. For companies with sufficient reserves, what the Cabinet does is probably enough. For companies that have just kept their heads above water in recent years and see the bottom of the greenhouse, exciting weeks are coming.

IMPLEMENTING CHALLENGE: The money is there, but implementation remains a problem for the government. For example, 78 000 companies have applied for a reduction in working hours, whereas the scheme is intended for only 200 companies. Minister Koolmees came to the conclusion: this is not working. His employees worked day and night, but were not processed. That is why the reduction in working hours has been abolished and a new fund will be introduced with simpler conditions. But with the creation of a new fund, the capacity problems have not been solved. And there were already so many problems with the Tax Administration and UWV — organisations that also play an important role in supporting entrepreneurs.

WOPKE-WIEBES-WOUTER-FUND: According to Minister Wopke Hoekstra (Finance, CDA), it costs “several tens of billions of euros”, depending on how many entrepreneurs report. Hoekstra expects to spend between 10 and 20 billion this quarter alone. But that does not mean that no companies will get into trouble: it will be “squeaking and cracking”, warned Hoekstra. And what is it paid from? The Netherlands can borrow around 90 billion euros under the European budget rules. Probably this emergency package will replace the investment fund that Hoekstra devised with Wiebes. Now that Wouter Koolmees (Social Affairs, D66) has also intervened in this support fund, the name is obvious: the Wopke-Wiebes-Wouter Fund.

Historical speeches
If we talk about historical speeches, these are three. Abraham Lincoln's speech at the commemoration on the battlefield of Gettysburg, That was a historic speech. Or the blood, toil, tears and sweat -argument with which Winston Churchill accepted the office of Prime Minister in 1940 for a loaded House of Commons.

Den Uyl's speech in the oil crisis.
“We will have to continue to focus on living behaviour with a more economical use of raw materials and energy. This will change our existence. Certain views therefore fall away. But our existence doesn't have to be any more unhappy.”Mark Rutte came twenty-four hours late with a bullcake story in which he summarized the measures of the past that surrounding countries had taken before. In no way did he come back to what he had said earlier on that subject. He spoke, as always, words that he can't take a bump. What is our policy? We listen to the experts. Who are the experts? These are the experts who were blown away that weekend by a combination of doctors and angry citizens, so that the schools were closed.

And then that repeated “do what is necessary”. He's gonna do whatever it takes. Well then we know what awaits us: what is necessary will happen.

As long as the world's virologists disagree, there remains the uncertainty “to do what is necessary”. #toespraakvanRutte We could have done without a speech.