Doomsscenario proves most accurate climate model to date


Of the four possible climate scenarios prepared by the UN Climate Panel (IPCC), the doom scenario appears to be closest to reality. At least until 2050, it is therefore the most realistic guiding principle for governments in their climate planning, says American research.

The model, which is usually called “worst-case scenario” or “doom-scenario” in the media, is officially called “RCP8.5”. It is the most pessimistic of the four scenarios of the IPCC and gets criticised to be alarmist because it assumes steadily rising greenhouse gas emissions. These emissions would lead to an increase in temperature of no less than 5 degrees in the next 80 years.

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But a new analysis by the Woods Hole Research Center in the US shows that the model best approaches the past pattern of what the world ejected between 2005 and 2020. That is more precise than the other three more optimistic emission scenarios used by the UN Climate Panel in its reports.

So governments should use the doomsday scenario as a guide in their decisions until 2050, the researchers write.

And also in the next decades, the model remains the best guide for governments, the researchers say. Because even if the current global climate plans for the next decades are taken into account, the world remains the closest to scenario RCP8.5. So governments should use it as a guide in their decisions until 2050, the researchers write. If they do not and assume a more optimistic scenario, they base their policy on an overly rosy assessment of the #klimaatverandering and the physical risks associated with it.