Yoors
Premium
Much of the planet becomes unlivable by heat within 50 years
Translated from Dutch. View the original post
here
The #klimaatcrisis is going to hit the planet harder than has been expected until now. More than a billion people will have to move to other parts or survive in unbearable heat. A third of the currently habitable earth's surface will become as hot as the warmest parts of the Sahara. Global warming is shrinking the so-called 'climate niche', the areas where humanity has so far been able to thrive. Over the next 50 years, more will change than in the past 6,000 years.
The deterrent scenario is reflected in a study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), the journal of the American Academy of Sciences. According to the researchers, the disaster will happen if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase.
The authors are, according to their own words, “upside down” of the results. “The numbers are mind-boggling,” said Tim Lenton of Exeter University opposite The Guardian. “I have previously investigated climate tipping points and they are soon seen as apocalyptic, but this is much harder. This makes the threat clear in human conditions.”
The researchers did not look at the consequences for the economy or physical issues but at the consequences for the human environment. The vast majority of humanity has always lived in regions where the temperature is on average between 6 and 28 degrees Celsius. These are ideal conditions for both health and food production.
Those parts will experience a much higher rise in temperatures than the average heat on Earth: 7.5 degrees at a global rise of 3 degrees. Such an increase is achieved by the end of this century according to scenarios. It would mean that about 30 percent of the world's population is experiencing an increase to the average temperature to 29 degrees. That's rare now outside places like the Sahara.
According to Prof Marten Scheffer of Wageningen University, such a temperature is simply unlivable. “There are limits to how much people can adapt. If you have enough money, you can use air conditioning and fly food in. But that is not the case for most people.”
As the areas in question are also densely populated, a huge flow of migration to more liveable areas is expected. The authors argue that it is necessary for governments to work together to solve the problems of climate and migration together. “To protect our children from the enormous social tensions that change can bring,” said Xu Chi of Nanjing University.
The deterrent scenario is reflected in a study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), the journal of the American Academy of Sciences. According to the researchers, the disaster will happen if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase.
The authors are, according to their own words, “upside down” of the results. “The numbers are mind-boggling,” said Tim Lenton of Exeter University opposite The Guardian. “I have previously investigated climate tipping points and they are soon seen as apocalyptic, but this is much harder. This makes the threat clear in human conditions.”
The researchers did not look at the consequences for the economy or physical issues but at the consequences for the human environment. The vast majority of humanity has always lived in regions where the temperature is on average between 6 and 28 degrees Celsius. These are ideal conditions for both health and food production.
Those parts will experience a much higher rise in temperatures than the average heat on Earth: 7.5 degrees at a global rise of 3 degrees. Such an increase is achieved by the end of this century according to scenarios. It would mean that about 30 percent of the world's population is experiencing an increase to the average temperature to 29 degrees. That's rare now outside places like the Sahara.
According to Prof Marten Scheffer of Wageningen University, such a temperature is simply unlivable. “There are limits to how much people can adapt. If you have enough money, you can use air conditioning and fly food in. But that is not the case for most people.”
As the areas in question are also densely populated, a huge flow of migration to more liveable areas is expected. The authors argue that it is necessary for governments to work together to solve the problems of climate and migration together. “To protect our children from the enormous social tensions that change can bring,” said Xu Chi of Nanjing University.
1
- Report this post
