Yoors
Premium
The power of group mumity
Translated from Dutch. View the original post
here
What is it? #groepsimmuniteit - What? And why is it so important in the fight against COVID-19? Tonight, Prime Minister Mark Rutte unveiled the Dutch corona strategy. The idea is to control the virus to the maximum. And in this, a leading role is played by group immunity.
Two steps
Initially, the current measures — closing schools and restaurants, keeping 1.5 metres away from others, not shaking hands and staying at home with cold complaints — are aimed at combating the spread of the virus. However, that does not mean that a large part of the population does not get the virus, it became clear. Rutte revealed that experts suspect that a large part of the Dutch population will eventually receive the virus. The measures cannot prevent this, but are intended first of all to prevent the increase in the number of infections so rapidly that the health system becomes overloaded. Secondly, they aim to protect precisely those people to whom the coronavirus poses a real threat — the elderly and those with vulnerable health.
Two steps
Initially, the current measures — closing schools and restaurants, keeping 1.5 metres away from others, not shaking hands and staying at home with cold complaints — are aimed at combating the spread of the virus. However, that does not mean that a large part of the population does not get the virus, it became clear. Rutte revealed that experts suspect that a large part of the Dutch population will eventually receive the virus. The measures cannot prevent this, but are intended first of all to prevent the increase in the number of infections so rapidly that the health system becomes overloaded. Secondly, they aim to protect precisely those people to whom the coronavirus poses a real threat — the elderly and those with vulnerable health.
Paradoxically, the fact that soon a large part of the Dutch population has experienced the virus can also help with the latter. Elderly people and people with vulnerable health can count on group immunity.
Group Immunity
When someone gets the coronavirus and restores it, this person is mostly immune to it. This means that the virus can no longer infect this person; as soon as the virus tries to do so, the immune system — which the alien virus still recognizes from the 2020 pandemic — will immediately get rid of it. And the more people are immune to the virus, the more difficult it is for the virus to spread. After all, every person with immunity is a dead end. And with it, the probability that the virus will manage to reach someone who has not yet had the virus is getting smaller.
kindling
To illustrate it even more clearly, you can also imagine the new coronavirus as a fire. And in this scenario, the Dutch population is a large mountain of kindling. Put one burning blade in this mountain of kindling wood (the infected person) and in no time the whole mountain of kindling is on fire. Now imagine that a large part of the kindling is wet (that is, many people have already gone through the virus). If you put a burning light on it now, the fire will be much less likely to get around. And even people who have not yet experienced the virus can be protected from it, as long as they are surrounded by enough wet lighters.
Group Immunity
When someone gets the coronavirus and restores it, this person is mostly immune to it. This means that the virus can no longer infect this person; as soon as the virus tries to do so, the immune system — which the alien virus still recognizes from the 2020 pandemic — will immediately get rid of it. And the more people are immune to the virus, the more difficult it is for the virus to spread. After all, every person with immunity is a dead end. And with it, the probability that the virus will manage to reach someone who has not yet had the virus is getting smaller.
kindling
To illustrate it even more clearly, you can also imagine the new coronavirus as a fire. And in this scenario, the Dutch population is a large mountain of kindling. Put one burning blade in this mountain of kindling wood (the infected person) and in no time the whole mountain of kindling is on fire. Now imagine that a large part of the kindling is wet (that is, many people have already gone through the virus). If you put a burning light on it now, the fire will be much less likely to get around. And even people who have not yet experienced the virus can be protected from it, as long as they are surrounded by enough wet lighters.
The border
But how many wet lighters do you need to properly protect elderly people and people with vulnerable health? In other words, what percentage of the population should the virus go through before we can count on group immunity? Rutte didn't go on that. From other infectious diseases, we know that the herd immunity threshold varies from disease to disease. For example, diphtheria — for which we build herd immunity through vaccinations — has a herd immunity threshold of about 83%. So only when 83% of a population is immune to the disease, people who have not been vaccinated can count on group immunity. For measles, it's around 94%. It should be noted that all these diseases are more contagious than the new coronavirus. And since the herd immunity threshold depends, among other things, on the degree of infectiousness of a disease, one can expect group immunity to be reached in a slightly lower percentage of immune subjects. However, because it is not yet entirely clear how contagious the virus is, it is also difficult to determine how many people have to go through the virus to reach group immunity.
According to Rutte, a strategy in which we aim to protect the elderly and vulnerable people, prevent a peak in infections and build group immunity is the best approach. At least as long as there is no vaccine. According to experts, this vaccine can wait 12 to 18 months. We do not know exactly how long it takes to reach group immunity with the current state of affairs. It depends on how the virus will spread throughout the Netherlands in the near future. If you look purely at the group immunity, a rapid spread of the virus might seem advantageous. But in view of the health system and the risks associated with overloading it, it is now important to slow down the virus as much as possible. The latter means, according to Rutte — who undoubtedly relies on the views of experts — that group immunity is unfortunately still waiting months (or longer).
But how many wet lighters do you need to properly protect elderly people and people with vulnerable health? In other words, what percentage of the population should the virus go through before we can count on group immunity? Rutte didn't go on that. From other infectious diseases, we know that the herd immunity threshold varies from disease to disease. For example, diphtheria — for which we build herd immunity through vaccinations — has a herd immunity threshold of about 83%. So only when 83% of a population is immune to the disease, people who have not been vaccinated can count on group immunity. For measles, it's around 94%. It should be noted that all these diseases are more contagious than the new coronavirus. And since the herd immunity threshold depends, among other things, on the degree of infectiousness of a disease, one can expect group immunity to be reached in a slightly lower percentage of immune subjects. However, because it is not yet entirely clear how contagious the virus is, it is also difficult to determine how many people have to go through the virus to reach group immunity.
According to Rutte, a strategy in which we aim to protect the elderly and vulnerable people, prevent a peak in infections and build group immunity is the best approach. At least as long as there is no vaccine. According to experts, this vaccine can wait 12 to 18 months. We do not know exactly how long it takes to reach group immunity with the current state of affairs. It depends on how the virus will spread throughout the Netherlands in the near future. If you look purely at the group immunity, a rapid spread of the virus might seem advantageous. But in view of the health system and the risks associated with overloading it, it is now important to slow down the virus as much as possible. The latter means, according to Rutte — who undoubtedly relies on the views of experts — that group immunity is unfortunately still waiting months (or longer).
Source: Scientias.nl
Germany and France announce major measures
4
- Report this post
