The Professor #medicalhistory years ago, Yale warned that SARS, avian influenza and swine fever were only harbingers of a much more serious pandemic.

Snowden, 73, is Professor of Medical History at American Yale University and author of the book Epidemics and Society. From the Black Death to the Present. Almost fifty years ago he survived a cholera outbreak in Rome, where he was on a study trip. Now he is stuck in the Italian capital because of Covid-19, where he once again stayed for research. The historian became infected with the coronavirus. When Der Spiegel spoke to him, he was fine, but he was still in quarantine.

According to the professor, we could have had a vaccine a long time ago. “Our problem is that we don't use science in the right way, that we don't use it wisely. We could have had a coronavirus vaccine a long time ago. But after Sars disappeared and Mers turned out to be not so easily transferable, the development was suddenly no longer worth it. Ultimately, the pharmaceutical industry is about profit. The same problem applies to hospitals: pandemic prevention does not bring money, unlike major operations. That's why no one took them seriously. And in many countries, including the United States, millions of people do not have access to advanced medicines, which now has very serious consequences. One of the lessons to be learned from this epidemic is that medicine must become a human right.”

Professor Snowden, you warned years ago that Sars, avian flu and swine flu were only the harbinger of something bigger, a serious pandemic. Did you think of a pathogen like SARS-COV-2 at the time?

Oh, yes, absolutely.. And I was certainly not the only one who saw a pandemic with such a lung virus coming. Virologists and epidemiologists around the world have warned time and again. I really wonder: how blind can you be? If Donald Trump asks, “Who could have known about this? ” my answer is, “Everyone!”

Why wasn't that message heard?

Unfortunately, warning people about something too often bears the fate of Cassandra. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in the United States, explained the problem in 2006 very simply: if you live in the Caribbean, the scientists tell you that at some point there will be a hurricane. You can not say anything about the power of the storm and when it comes. But, of course, you have to prepare for it. Just as it is with a pandemic. But what have we done? After short periods of anxiety — after Sars and avian flu — the danger was simply forgotten. That is why there is currently no common pandemic policy within the EU, the World Health Organisation has too little money and we do not have enough spare capacity in hospitals in many countries.

Corona is already compared to the plague. But if you read the reports of this terrible scourge that has been raging across Europe for centuries, you will feel quite privileged in your sheltered Western European home office...

(Laughs) It's nice to see that you're comforting with that. I do the same. Although I take Covid-19 very seriously, the disease should not be compared with the plague. Between 1347 and 1743, the plague killed about 100 million people in Europe. The disease depopulation entire regions and spread an abomination that I do not see in the coronavirus.

While we are now waiting impatiently for the introduction of the vaccine, they would have been delighted at that time if they had heard that a plague vaccine would be available in eighteen months' time

Are we spoiled by our reliable health care?

Let us put it this way: while we are now waiting impatiently for the introduction of the vaccine, the inhabitants of Florence would have been overjoyed if they had heard that a plague vaccine would be available in eighteen months' time.. But I believe that it is not necessarily the most mortal diseases that cause the greatest terror and lead to the greatest political upheavals.

Which one, then?

I believe that these are, first of all, new, unknown epidemics that appear suddenly, like the new type of coronavirus. Pests from which the course of the disease can not be properly predicted. Smallpox was a cruel disease that killed more than half of the victims, often children, and deformed many people for life. And, of course, people were afraid of smallpox. But at the beginning of the eighteenth century people had somehow reconciled. They accepted it.

Like tuberculosis?

Maybe, with the difference that you don't die from it, only usually gets less old. In the nineteenth century, it was even considered a bit romantic to suffer from TB. Pathogens such as plague or cholera abactery sometimes caused people to die suddenly, even in public spaces. Pestticians were overwhelmed and desperate. Such situations are reminiscent of the images sent around the world from Wuhan. It is quite conceivable that such an exceptional situation can cause political upheavals and economic crises, even if the mortality rate is relatively low, as is the case with Covid-19.

Some observers already say that China could become a world power thanks to the coronavirus.

Just like the United States because of yellow fever.

Excuse me?

That goes back a little further: around 1800, today's Haiti, which was part of France at the time, was one of the richest colonies in the world thanks to the huge sugar cane plantations.. But then there came a great slave rebellion. Napoleon, who had ambitions to gain a foothold in the New World, wanted to suppress this insurrection with more than 60,000 soldiers. However, a large part of them were killed in Haiti by yellow fever. Napoleon had to abandon his plans and sold the then Louisiana to the United States in 1803. The United States doubled its territory with one stone — an important step towards world domination.

Have powerful players gone down by microbes?

much! The so-called Attic epidemic has probably contributed significantly to the demise of ancient Greece. This was a deadly and still enigmatic disease in which the body became littered with blisters. Among many other factors, malaria played a role in the fall of the Roman Empire, which spread to southern Europe from the fifth century. Those who survived, kept febrile attacks for life and could not work as hard as before. This has contributed to the decline of agriculture. In Britain, the reign of the house Stuart ended with smallpox, and the army of Napoleon in Russia was destroyed not on the battlefield, but by typhus and dysentery.

The current pandemic also deals with major ethical issues, for example the debate on the cessation of public life, which is essentially about the conflict between saving the economy on the one hand and saving human lives on the other.

That is very reminiscent of the situation that occurred as a result of cholera. From 1851 to around 1910, regular international conferences were held coordinating measures against dissemination. For example, quarantine for ship crews, or travel restrictions. There was also much discussion about the economic consequences of such measures, such as a five-day quarantine that the operation of the Suez Canal would no longer be profitable [of the approximately 1.5 million Egyptian workers who participated in this project, 30,000 died, largely due to cholera].

'After Sars had disappeared and Mers was not so easily transferable, the development was suddenly no longer worthwhile. '

The shortened quarantine period from 1720 reminds me a bit of Donald Trump, who initially spoke of Covid-19 as' cold 'and' flu '

So, debates like now.

Absolutely, and there are more examples. In 1720 a merchant ship with valuable substances from Smyrna and the Levante Marseille in the south of France. Eight seafarers, one passenger and the ship's doctor had already died of the plague on the way. Nevertheless, under pressure from local merchants, the quarantine of the crew on an island in front of the city, which should have lasted forty days, was reduced to ten days and the goods were not burned. As a result, more than half of the 100,000 inhabitants of Marseille died from the plague. The shortened quarantine period was also called a 'small quarantine'. It reminds me a bit of Donald Trump, who initially spoke of Covid-19 as' cold 'and 'flu'.

So you're gonna find parallels between the current pandemic and the plague?

There are certainly. For example, the super rich are now fleeing to remote places, just as in the famous work Decamerone by the Italian poet Giovanni Boccaccio, in which ten young people in a country house just outside Florence are securing themselves from the plague. The attempts of the United States and China to make each other fall evoke memories: prostitutes and Jews were blamed for the plague, resulting in terrible pogroms. And Alessandro Manzoni's historical novel The Fiancee is about four Spaniards who were executed because they were suspected of spreading the plague.
So was cholera: a historical illustration shows how furious American citizens defend their country against immigrants who may be infected with cholera. Because of the coronavirus, Chinese-looking people in many countries have been offended or even attacked.

The plague raged so much that many people lost their faith in God. How does the virus affect our beliefs in a largely secular society?

I think we're questioning our faith in globalisation. There are existential fears, we realize now how vulnerable that has made us. But globalization is not imposed on us by God, we created it ourselves. Through the myth of uncontrolled economic growth, the nearly eight billion people living on Earth, the many journeys around the world, the megacities, pollution and the extensive reduction of nature, we have created ideal conditions for the development and spread of the coronavirus and caused it to hit us particularly hard.

Can anything good come out of the pandemic?

It has become clear that we are at a crossroads. If we now — and it looks like that — permanently fall back into nationalism, we lose the chance to really change something.. From avian influenza to SARS, from Ebola to coronavirus, all these diseases originated from zoonotic transmission [pathogens passing from animals to humans]. We have contact with animals to an extent unprecedented in human history. How many times does this have to happen before we finally realize that there is a pattern? That people should stop expanding their living space?

Do we need a green economy?

Yes, environmental protection and health protection must go hand in hand in the future. That is impossible when we think in nation states; borders do not stop viruses. We must think as humanity as a whole, as humanity that must live in a world of microbes.

What about science, can it not protect us better from epidemics?

There is no doubt that science has made tremendous progress, which we notice every day. In the plague, people thought the disease was a punishment from God — a terrible psychological terror. And when I experienced a cholera outbreak in Rome in 1973, the Italian Minister of Health was so superstitious that, when he visited a cholera ward in a hospital, he did not trust the hygiene measures and made a hand signal behind his back that evil should repel. Fortunately, those days are over. Even compared to SARS 17 years ago, enormous progress has been made.

But not enough yet?

Our problem is that we don't use science in the right way, we don't use it wisely. We could have had a coronavirus vaccine a long time ago. But after Sars disappeared and Mers turned out to be not so easily transferable, the development was suddenly no longer worth it. Ultimately, the pharmaceutical industry is about profit. The same problem applies to hospitals: pandemic prevention does not bring money, unlike major operations. That's why no one took them seriously. And in many countries, including the United States, millions of people do not have access to advanced medicines, which now has very serious consequences. One of the lessons to be learned from this epidemic is that medicine must become a human right.

Do you believe, like pioneer in the field of infection research Louis Pasteur, that the microbes will eventually have the last word?

I think it depends on whether we're willing to learn from our mistakes. We know exactly which vulnerabilities pave the way for pandemics. We have the capacity to work together and the tools to prevent future pandemics, or at least significantly reduce the likelihood of them. But will we really do? I hope so. But I'm not sure. Look at how terribly slow climate protection is progressing!

But unlike the effects of climate change, the coronavirus can not be ignored...

That's right, maybe it helps that we are all directly affected by this pandemic. Isn't that the essence of the Greek tragedy that people learn only by suffering?

Professor Snowden, thank you for this interview.

What does World History teach us? That we see blind!

Source (s): Der Spiegel/360 Magazine (€) Frank Snowden: 'We could have had a vaccine by now '

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